The real problem I have with all this trust in predictive analytics is twofold:
First of all we’re not really good at it. Most programs using predictive modeling do not generate mind-blowing stats, really. Specifically not the programs running ads or outbound marketing efforts. So instead we turn to pushing mind-blowing volumes, since high volume times low success-rate still makes a decent turnover.. With diminishing returns I may add.
Secondly, and not a lot of people know this or even dare to think of it, we are really good at it. We are so good at predictive analytics that some people we target, actually do what we have predicted. Sounds good, no? Surprisingly maybe, not so good though. Why?
Because up to two-thirds of the people that did what we predicted (results from own research) would have acted anyway, without your push messaging. Thus the net-effectiveness of your push-program is likely not to exceed one-third of what you currently think it is, which wasn’t a whole lot in the first place, no?
“Yes” you think, “that’s why I’m on Facebook, engaging my fans”. And if so, you are probably targeting ads to stimulate ‘engagement’ as well. For the same reason you should thoroughly evaluate your outbound marketing programs for net effectiveness, you should do the same for you Social marketing & advertising programs. Indications are it is not worth your money..
Want some big-data with that?